How many IDNs will we end up with?

This is the most common question I am asked! I have my thoughts on it but I thought I’d see what the readers of National Accounts Weekly think!

So in a recent survey I asked:

It is estimated that we have around 600 IDNs in the United States today. Mergers and acquisitions continue at a rapid pace. How many IDNs will we end up with in 3-5 years?

Here are the responses:

Around 300. We will have about half as many IDN/Hospital owners. 55%
Less than 100. We will see massive consolidation. 21%
600 or so. We are pretty much done with consolidation. 4%
Other (please specify) 20%

This does not surprise me. Around 300 seems to be the most common response in daily conversations. The U.S. has 40 MSAs (cities) with over 1m people. You have to think each of those will have 3-4 IDNs each, so that gets you to around 150. It will be interesting to watch, that is for sure!